The 33% chance bonus appears to apply to components individually, not "per product". This means that the actual percentage chance of getting a "free" potion is not necessarily 33%.
The 33% chance to not consume crafting ingredients appears to apply per ingredient. This means that as potions increase in complexity, the likelihood of getting a potion which consumed no crafting ingredients decreases. As such, while using the Alchemy Table will always be more economical than using the Alchemy Station, the likelihood that crafting will yield additional potions decreases with potion complexity. This results in a probability equation of n = 1/3x, where x is the number of ingredients. Some examples, with the assumption of only enough ingredients to produce one product:
- In a potion using two ingredients, the probability of not consuming any ingredients is 1/3 * 1/3 (1/9, or 11.11%)
- In a complex potion, such as the Super Healing Potion, it appears that (as of 1.3x) a stack of items as an ingredient counts as one ingredient for the purposes of the Alchemy Table. Using the Super Healing Potion as an example, this maintains the previous formula (1/3x=5) = .0041, or a 0.4% chance of a "free craft".
While percentage chance of "free" potions is low, with all ingredients being in equal measure to their formulae, the 33% chance of preservation of ingredients is more helpful when the ingredients are not in equal measure. This may allow, by incident, higher crafting rates when some ingredients are more rare. It is also helpful in preserving individual ingredients which are shared across many useful potions (such as Daybloom).
- Added to the game.